A conversation with Miles Carter and Beth (ChatGPT) edits by Grok and Gemini
Teaser
Despite campaign promises and catchy slogans, gas prices have been rising since January 2025 — not falling. In today’s blog, Miles Carter and Beth explore the real impact of “drill baby drill,” revealing who profits, who pays, and what we’re sacrificing in the name of cheap energy that hasn’t arrived.
Main Conversation
Miles’ Question
Beth, today I read a news article claiming that the executive branch is touting gas prices as being at a four-year low. But when I looked at the actual data, it showed something different: gas prices were steadily declining until January 2025. Since the new administration took office, that downward trend halted — and prices have actually increased over the last six months.
Many Americans believed that “drill baby drill” would bring prices down. But the opposite seems to be happening. Meanwhile, profit margins for gas companies and retailers have gone up.
Why the disconnect? Has “drill baby drill” only benefited oil producers and retailers, rather than consumers?
Beth’s Initial Response
You’re spotting something real, Miles — and you’re asking the right question.
There is a disconnect between the political narrative and the economic reality. The executive branch may highlight a selective snapshot (like comparing today’s prices to the 2022 peak), but that doesn’t reflect the current six-month trend, which shows prices increasing since January 2025. Here’s what’s happening under the hood:
📈 Gas Prices Were Falling — Until January 2025
- From late 2023 through the end of 2024, gas prices were in a clear downward trend.
- January 2025: A pivot point. After the new administration took office, prices leveled off and began rising gradually.
Despite the rhetoric, this marked the end of the decline — not its continuation.
💭 “Drill Baby Drill” Is Not a Price Lever
- New drilling takes time — often years — to affect supply.
- Oil companies are not rushing to expand output, even under deregulation.
- They’re choosing to maximize profits, not production.
So while the administration promotes a pro-oil agenda, companies themselves are limiting production to keep prices — and margins — high.
💸 Who’s Really Benefiting?
- Gas companies and refiners: Profit margins have risen significantly.
- Retailers: Monthly profits have also increased.
- Consumers: Are paying more than they were six months ago — despite the promise that drilling would reduce prices.
This isn’t unique to the current administration — it’s how a free-market energy system works unless regulated. When government refuses to cap prices or tax excess profits, companies are rewarded for charging as much as the market will bear.
Beth’s Follow-Up Question
Do you think the government should intervene more directly in energy markets — say, by taxing windfall oil profits or capping retail margins — or would that create more harm than good?
Miles’ Reflection
Beth, that’s a good question. It feels like renewable energy is on the chopping block right now. We’ve deregulated gas drilling, and maybe — knowingly or not — we’re sacrificing our children’s futures by continuing to ignore the risks that gas energy poses to climate change.
The only clear beneficiary so far seems to be the profit margins of gas companies.
Can you show me what exactly we’re giving up in this tradeoff? And more importantly — when can the consumers who voted for “drill baby drill” actually expect to see any benefit from that risk?
Beth’s Summary
You’ve hit the core of the issue: risk vs. reward — but only one side is cashing in.
🌍 What We’re Sacrificing:
- Climate progress is stalling; increased drilling moves us further from global emissions goals.
- Energy transition momentum is weakening as fossil fuel dominance discourages renewable investment.
- Generational responsibility is eroding: we’re offloading long-term climate and health costs to our children.
⏳ When Will Voters Benefit?
- Short answer: Not soon.
- Prices haven’t dropped since January 2025.
- Supply has not risen enough to force prices down.
- The free market rewards scarcity — not affordability.
We’ve traded climate stability and clean energy momentum for the promise of cheaper gas — but that promise hasn’t been kept.
Instead, oil companies are profiting, and the public is still paying.
Image
A clean, symbolic image of a fuel pump with dollar signs rising like smoke into the sky, fading into a backdrop of wind turbines halted in the distance.
Sources
- U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA): https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/
- OPIS Retail Margin Reports: https://opisnet.com
- ExxonMobil, Chevron annual earnings: https://corporate.exxonmobil.com
- FRED Gasoline Prices: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GASREGM
- IEA Net Zero Report: https://www.iea.org/reports/net-zero-by-2050
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