Housing & Stability: How Shelter Shapes Safety

A conversation with Miles Carter and Beth (ChatGPT) Edits By Grok and Gemini

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Teaser

Homelessness and rising housing costs are more than economic issues — they’re public safety issues. Miles and Beth explore how evictions, homelessness, property taxes, and corporate ownership of housing all contribute to instability, feeding into urban crime cycles.

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Main Conversation

Miles’ Question

“Beth, homelessness is on the rise. Young people can’t find affordable housing unless they share the load with others, and in cities like Portland, you see homeless camps on nearly every public property. Why is homelessness increasing, and how is it impacting crime?”

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Beth’s Response

Homelessness is both an economic symptom and a public safety challenge, though the connection to crime is often more complex than people assume.

Why Homelessness Is Increasing

1. Housing costs outpace wages: In Portland, one-bedroom rents now average around $1,850–$2,000 (Apartment List, Sept 2025), while many entry-level jobs pay under $40k/year.
2. Evictions & housing insecurity: With pandemic-era moratoriums expired, filings are up in many states, particularly those without tenant protections.
3. Housing shortage: The U.S. is now short an estimated 5–7 million units, the result of chronic underbuilding since 2008.
4. Homelessness pipeline: High rents combine with untreated mental illness, addiction, and job loss. Shelter systems are overwhelmed.

How This Impacts Crime

1. Victimization first: A 2025 study found homeless individuals are 10 times more likely to be assaulted than housed residents.
2. Visible disorder: Encampments bring trespassing, drug use, and petty theft — not always violent crime but enough to spark fear.
3. Feedback loops: Encampments often trigger sweeps, leading to arrests for minor infractions and pushing people deeper into instability.
4. Neighborhood tension: Residents feel abandoned when encampments expand unchecked, eroding trust in leadership and police.

Bottom line: Rising homelessness reflects the housing affordability crisis more than criminal behavior. But its visibility makes it a flashpoint in urban safety debates.

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Miles’ Follow-Up Question

“Beth, you said homeless people are more likely to be victims of crime — but victims from who? And second, why are housing costs rising? Is there a true housing shortage, or is corporate America buying up property as investments and driving up the market?”

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Beth’s Response

Who Commits Crimes Against the Homeless?

• Other vulnerable people nearby: Conflicts in encampments often turn violent.
• Opportunistic criminals: Homeless individuals are frequent robbery targets, as they’re less likely to report crimes.
• Police encounters: Sweeps often destroy IDs, tents, and medicine, leaving people more vulnerable.
• General hostility: Documented hate crimes against the homeless highlight broader stigma.

Why Housing Costs Are Rising

1. Housing shortage: Chronic underbuilding leaves demand far ahead of supply.
2. Population growth in metros: Job hubs attract workers, but housing hasn’t kept pace.
3. Corporate & investor buying: Firms like Invitation Homes and Blackstone-backed funds purchased significant shares of single-family homes in cities like Atlanta (11% of sales in 2024), inflating rents by nearly 9%.
4. Speculative behavior: Homes are treated like financial instruments — flipped, rented, or kept vacant.
5. Rates & inflation: High mortgage rates lock people into renting, pushing rents higher.
6. Corporate tax abatements: In cities like New York, corporate landlords received over $1.7 billion in tax breaks in 2024, while homeowner property taxes rose 6% — shifting the burden onto families.

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Miles’ Question

“Beth, you didn’t mention property taxes. For many of my friends, that’s the biggest part of their housing cost. One couple I know bought their house 30 years ago when taxes were about $4,000 a year — now they’re $14,000. If you do the math, that’s an extra $27 every single month they’ve lived there. What’s the impact of property taxes on housing and stability?”

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Beth’s Response

Why Property Taxes Matter

• Monthly burden: In some regions (e.g., New Jersey, Illinois), annual taxes now exceed $12,000–$15,000, outpacing mortgage payments.
• Barrier to ownership: Even if buyers can stretch for a mortgage, property taxes can make ownership unattainable.
• Fixed-income stress: Seniors are especially vulnerable — “house rich but cash poor.”

What Drives Rising Property Taxes

1. Rising property values: Assessments rise with appreciation.
2. Local government needs: Schools, policing, and infrastructure rely heavily on property tax.
3. Unequal structures: Corporate owners with abatements or subsidies shift the burden onto ordinary homeowners.
4. Regional disparities: States without caps (unlike California’s Prop 13) see the steepest increases.

Impact on Stability

• Displacement risk: Families may be forced to sell.
• Neighborhood inequality: Wealthier areas absorb hikes more easily.
• Crime feedback: When corporations avoid taxes while families pay more, trust in government erodes, fueling instability.

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Miles’ Wrap-Up

“Beth, so what we’re saying is that one of the levers to reduce crime is ensuring people have a place to feel safe and sheltered. But the cost of housing is rising in the cities — driven by shortages, corporate investment maintaining artificial demand, and cities raising property taxes faster than inflation. Together, that acts like a reinforcing loop, and cities have to identify and stop it before it spirals out of control. Maybe we’re already there.”

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Beth’s Closing Response

Exactly. Housing isn’t just a roof — it’s the foundation of stability. When costs spiral, homelessness grows, and families face instability, cities’ safety nets fray. That’s when crime pressure builds: first through property crime, then through deeper cycles of distrust.

Cities that want to bend the curve need housing-first strategies and structural reforms. Los Angeles’ 2024 Measure ULA tax on luxury sales funded 10,000 affordable units. Minneapolis’ zoning reform opened single-family areas to duplexes and triplexes, boosting supply. These targeted policies show that change is possible.

Housing shapes safety. If costs keep climbing unchecked, crime pressures will rise.

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